Sunday 31 January 2021

Is the weakness of Bitcoin after the ‘Elon Musk pump’ hinting at a bull trap?

Is the weakness of Bitcoin after the ‘Elon Musk pump’ hinting at a bull trap?
Is the weakness of Bitcoin after the ‘Elon Musk pump’ hinting at a bull trap?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is showing overall weakness as it struggles to establish $34,000 as a support level. Overall, BTC appears to be stagnating without signs of a short-term relief rally, leading traders to be cautious.

One concerning trend is that the volume of Bitcoin has been stagnating along with its price, apart from the “Elon pump” on Jan. 29. This trend indicates that there is an overall drop in buyer demand since the $42,000 top despite BTC hovering in the low $30,000 region.


BTC/USDT 4-hour price chart (Binance). Source: TradingView.com

Bitcoin gets choppy after revisiting $38,000

On Jan. 29, the price of Bitcoin rose to as high as $38,461 on Binance after Tesla CEO and the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, ostensibly showed support for Bitcoin.

However, before this rally, on-chain analysts were already warning that the momentum of Bitcoin was slowing.

Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, for example, pinpointed the high selling pressure from Bitcoin miners as a sign of a short-term bearish scenario.

Although the price of Bitcoin briefly surged 14%, it snapped back down to sub-$34,000 within 24 hours. Hence, weakening on-chain indicators were likely a warning that BTC would retrace most of its “Elon pump” gains. 

Ki wrote before the rally:

“Exchange Whale Ratio hit the eight-month high, meaning $BTC might have a large red candle if the price drops. It’s supposed to be below 85% if this bull-run is legit. Otherwise, it’s likely to be a bull trap.”

Whales likely sold as the price of Bitcoin abruptly surged to the $38,000 resistance level, causing a sharp correction.

With shaky on-chain indicators and some selling pressure coming from miners, traders are also showing caution about longing BTC/USD in the near term. 

A pseudonymous trader known as “Salsa Tekila” said that he is not using leverage until Bitcoin breaks out or drops back to $30,000. He said:

“We’re at that point where $BTC is far enough from the 30k for me not to be comfortable longing with any form of leverage but at the same time I wouldn’t short. Therefore being spot long until a big down / legacy open / probably Monday morning is best. NO LEVERAGE”

Meanwhile, another popular pseudonymous trader known as “Byzantine General” argues that the rally is broken. Hence, even if Bitcoin is bullish in the macro picture, more downside is possible until it sees a convincing breakout on lower time frames. He noted:

“The bull run is still on IMO, but the rally is broken. If we re-claim the yearly TWAP we can continue ze pump, but until then it looks kinda meh.”

Bitcoin price chart with TWAP level. Source: TradingView.com, Byzantine General

What to watch out for

Traders and technical analysts are closely observing Bitcoin’s reaction to the $34,500 to $35,000 range.

If Bitcoin breaks out of it with strength, momentum, and high volume, then the probability of a short-term trend reversal rises.

However, if Bitcoin struggles to retest the $34,500 resistance level and continues to stagnate in the $33,000 region, the risk of a further breakdown to the $33,000 support remains.


Crypto Fear and Green Index (78 or “extreme greed”). Source: Digital Assets Data 

Additional signs that BTC price could see another pullback include the Crypto Fear and Greed index remaining at “extreme greed” levels and Google searches for “Bitcoin” dropping by 50% since multi-year highs seen earlier this month. 

Title: Is the weakness of Bitcoin after the ‘Elon Musk pump’ hinting at a bull trap?
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/is-the-weakness-of-bitcoin-after-the-elon-musk-pump-hinting-at-a-bull-trap
Published Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2021 11:00:00 +0000

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Is the weakness of Bitcoin after the ‘Elon Musk pump’ hinting at a bull trap?
Is the weakness of Bitcoin after the ‘Elon Musk pump’ hinting at a bull trap? was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/is-weakness-of-bitcoin-after-elon-musk.html

Saturday 30 January 2021

FTX Token (FTT) rallies 105% as interest in derivatives trading grows

FTX Token (FTT) rallies 105% as interest in derivatives trading grows
FTX Token (FTT) rallies 105% as interest in derivatives trading grows

FTX is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange backed by Alameda Research, a quantitative trading firm and crypto liquidity provider. 

The exchange launched in April 2019 and offered the usual spot trading, inverse swaps and futures contracts that can be found at other major platforms. By early 2020, the exchange launched its daily and weekly binary BTC options markets.


FTT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

FTT is the exchange’s native token and it’s issued on the Ethereum blockchain. FTT stakers are granted a trading fee discount based on a tiered system and other benefits include bonus votes in their polls and increased airdrop rewards.

The first airdrop took place in August 2020 when 500 million Serum (SRM) tokens were distributed to FTT holders. To differentiate itself from competitors, the users’ collateral is shared in one universal stablecoin wallet.

This means traders can reduce their margin requirements drastically. Numerous leveraged tokens mimicking leveraged ETF stocks have also been listed, including 3x Long Bitcoin and 3x Short Litecoin.

Leveraged tokens are derived from the exchange’s perpetual swap contracts and operate as tradeable ERC-20 tokens that can be withdrawn and traded. These innovative products have made the FTX a popular exchange among investors, as reflected by its rising futures contracts open interest.


Global markets aggregate open interest. Source: coinalyze.net

As shown above, the figure grew by 340% over the past six months, surpassing the $2 billion mark to vastly outperform more established exchanges.

In November 2020, the exchange ventured into tokenized equity trading, albeit not available for its U.S. citizens. Its partner CM-Equity custody the tokens redeemable for the underlying stocks. Interestingly, it’s allowed its users to buy less than one share, which is particularly useful for high-priced stocks like Amazon ($AMZN) and Google ($GOOG).

In December, FTX continued to innovate by launching pre-IPO futures contracts for AirBNB and Coinbase. These contracts allow traders to speculate on what price those companies will list on a stock exchange. The exchange also offers trading for thematic products, including a basket of cannabis-related listed stocks.

By creating multiple markets with enough liquidity provided by its market-making structure, the exchange was able to gather attention from a new client base. More recently, a Wall Street Bets index was launched, including GameStop ($GME), Dogecoin (DOGE), and iShares Silver Trust ($SLV).

Backed by these popular offerings, FTX Token (FTT) price has doubled since the beginning of 2021.


FTX Token (FTT) token price at Binance. Source: TradingView

To further incentivize holding the token, FTX repurchases and burns 33% of all fees generated from the exchange and 10% of its insurance fund net additions. This process will continue until half of the initial 350 million supply are destroyed.

While this may appear like a deflationary schedule, there are 31.25 million tokens allocated to the team, representing at least 17.8% of the targeted 175 million circulating supply. Regardless, considering the current $11.70 token price, its market capitalization after the burn process is completed surpasses $2 billion.

This number represents a 45% discount to Binance Coin’s (BNB) projected 2031 market capitalization, according to data from Messari. This is also roughly in line with the exchanges’ aggregate open interest $4.26 billion to $2.0 billion difference .

Interestingly, Binance has an undisclosed investment in FTX, and this may be creating fewer incentives for direct competition.

Currently, it seems that the market is pricing both tokens at the same valuation. Binance appears to be expanding its ecosystem via its Binance Smart Chain decentralized exchange, their blockchain projects incubator and a successful token launchpad platform.

FTX, on the other hand, is focused on being the market-leader of derivatives products innovation.

Currently all of these projects are producing value for token holders and with the burn schedule and rising popularity among derivatives exchanges it’s possible that FTT will continue to see further price appreciation.

author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Title: FTX Token (FTT) rallies 105% as interest in derivatives trading grows
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/ftx-token-ftt-rallies-105-as-interest-in-derivatives-trading-grows
Published Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2021 21:45:01 +0000

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FTX Token (FTT) rallies 105% as interest in derivatives trading grows
FTX Token (FTT) rallies 105% as interest in derivatives trading grows was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/ftx-token-ftt-rallies-105-as-interest.html

Bitcoin price chart shows ‘Elon Musk’ pump was an outlier — So what happens now?

Bitcoin price chart shows ‘Elon Musk’ pump was an outlier — So what happens now?
Bitcoin price chart shows ‘Elon Musk’ pump was an outlier — So what happens now?

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a very volatile week, as the price of Bitcoin jumped around from $32,000 to $38,500 and back toward $33,000 in a matter of 24 hours. 

The initial spike to $38,500 happened in minutes after Elon Musk added #Bitcoin to his Twitter profile.

However, no follow-up of that price movement was seen on the charts as Bitcoin dropped substantially in the following hours. Currently, the $34,500 area is a significant resistance zone to break through if the market wants to sustain the bullish momentum.

Failure to break $38,000 causing dropdown


XBT/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The levels that are critical to watch are highlighted in the chart above. Simply put, $38,000 must break for the rally to continue. Flipping this level for support opens the door to new all-time highs.

However, the surge couldn’t be sustained yesterday. After the $38,000 level’s failure, the $34,000 level couldn’t provide the heavily needed support for further upward momentum.

Therefore, the “Elon Musk pump” can be considered an outlier, and the general trend continues. This is a downtrend since the peak high at $42,000 that most likely will continue unless Bitcoin’s price can break through $34,500 and flip it into support.

Dollar showing strength is bad news for Bitcoin


U.S. Dollar Currency Index 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

One of the primary arguments for more Bitcoin downside would be the recovering U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY). This index shows a potential bottoming formation as a bullish divergence is seen at the significant 90-point level.

After this, the bullish divergence will be confirmed through a higher low, indicating that more upside is likely. 

Remarkably, the previous relief rally on the DXY Index in September caused a 20% correction for Bitcoin. However, since that relief rally, the DXY Index has shown massive weakness, one of the significant variables for the enormous increase of Bitcoin’s price to $42,000.

However, February isn’t the best month for equities. The same can be concluded about Bitcoin, as February 2018 was when Bitcoin crashed to $6,000 after hitting its previous all-time high.

Therefore, a rebounding DXY could add to the bearish sentiment for Bitcoin in February as well.

Bitcoin Dominance Index eyes relief rally


BTC Dominance 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

Historical charts show previous market behavior with many patterns being cyclical. 

When Bitcoin’s dominance topped out in December, massive surges were seen across the altcoin market. However, after such an enormous rally, a healthy correction would not come as a surprise to test previous resistance levels.

Those tests would mean a bounce for Bitcoin dominance in February, which may open the door for a huge run for the entire crypto market from March onwards.

Critical levels to watch for Bitcoin


XBT/USD 3-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The critical levels to watch are easy to see in the chart above. First, Bitcoin’s price has to reclaim the $34,500 level as support to sustain bullish momentum. If that happens, the level at $38,000 will be retested. Most likely, that test will result in a breakout above $38,000 toward the all-time high. 

However, if Bitcoin’s price can’t break through $34,500, further downward momentum is likely, as the chart shows. In that perspective, the critical level to watch is the $30,000 region. If that fails to sustain support (after numerous tests already), I expect a drop toward $25,000 and the 21-Week MA.

author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Title: Bitcoin price chart shows ‘Elon Musk’ pump was an outlier — So what happens now?
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-chart-shows-elon-musk-pump-was-an-outlier-so-what-happens-now
Published Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2021 15:07:35 +0000

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Bitcoin price chart shows ‘Elon Musk’ pump was an outlier — So what happens now?
Bitcoin price chart shows ‘Elon Musk’ pump was an outlier — So what happens now? was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/bitcoin-price-chart-shows-elon-musk.html

Friday 29 January 2021

World’s richest man Elon Musk boosts Bitcoin price by 20% — Is $40K back in play?

World’s richest man Elon Musk boosts Bitcoin price by 20% — Is $40K back in play?
World’s richest man Elon Musk boosts Bitcoin price by 20% — Is $40K back in play?

Bitcoin (BTC) has been correcting since the peak high at $42,000. However, this correction might have ended as a significant momentum shift occurred in recent days. 

The GameStop debacle raised many questions about big parties’ trustworthiness and exchanges, after which more and more people started to claim that decentralization is the future.

Among these people is Elon Musk who is worth nearly $183 billion, according to Forbes making him the world’s richest person. The Tesla CEO included #Bitcoin in his Twitter profile and also wrote “in retrospect, it was inevitable.” A very cryptic message to his 44 million followers, which some may interpret as Musk investing in Bitcoin.

In retrospect, it was inevitable

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 29, 2021

However, this tweet and profile change from Elon Musk prompted a new rally on Jan. 29 with price surging from $32,500 to $38,000 in a matter of minutes. The primary questions now are: does this mean the bull market is continuing and will BTC see new all-time highs?

Bitcoin holds key $30,000 level


XBT/USD 2-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 2-hour chart shows a clear bullish breakout after holding the significant support zone at $30,000.

The critical breaker for bullish continuation was to find support at $30,000, which happened in recent days. Since then, the next step for bullish continuation would be a breakout above the $34,000 resistance zone.

As the chart shows, and largely thanks to Elon Musk’s tweet, the breakout was confirmed, and Bitcoin started to accelerate heavily. The next level to break is $37,600-38,000 as that’s the next area of significant liquidity.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is trying to crack that level of resistance at $38,000. If this area flips for support, a further bullish continuation toward the all-time highs will likely occur, and $50,000 comes into play. 

Total market cap makes a new all-time high


Total cryptocurrency market cap 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has reached new all-time highs in the past 24 hours, accelerating to the $1.13 billion level.

However, the total market capitalization and the price of Bitcoin are still far away from the 21-Week MA. That 21-Week MA often sees a support test before continuing upward.

Therefore, the levels to watch for the total market cap are still the same as before. If the market can’t continue going up from here, $730 billion will be the focus as that would grant a perfect support/resistance flip from the previous all-time high.


BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows an apparent bullish cycle and a big gap between the 21-Week MA and the current price. These two often come back to each other to get the markets back to the “mean” of the price movement.

Thus, such a correction would bring the price of Bitcoin to the $25,000 region in the coming weeks. In the end, as long as Bitcoin remains above the 21-Week MA, the continuation of this bull market is very likely.

Critical levels to watch for Bitcoin


XBT/USD 3-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is trying to break through the resistance at $38,000. If that breaks, a continuation toward a new all-time highs seems inevitable, as $40,500 is the only level to watch after $38,000.

In that perspective, even price targets of $45,000 and $50,000 are on the table. However, if Bitcoin’s price can’t break through the $38,000 area, a renewed retest of the $34,000 zone should be expected.

If that doesn’t hold for support, a sharp fall toward the lows may occur along with more range-bound price action. Nevertheless, this would not be unhealthy for the market from a wider perspective.

author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Title: World’s richest man Elon Musk boosts Bitcoin price by 20% — Is $40K back in play?
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/world-s-richest-man-elon-musk-boosts-bitcoin-price-by-20-is-40k-back-in-play
Published Date: Fri, 29 Jan 2021 14:43:51 +0000

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World’s richest man Elon Musk boosts Bitcoin price by 20% — Is $40K back in play?
World’s richest man Elon Musk boosts Bitcoin price by 20% — Is $40K back in play? was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/worlds-richest-man-elon-musk-boosts.html

Crypto in the Philippines: Necessity is the mother of adoption

Crypto in the Philippines: Necessity is the mother of adoption
Crypto in the Philippines: Necessity is the mother of adoption


Title: Crypto in the Philippines: Necessity is the mother of adoption
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/magazine/2021/01/29/crypto-in-the-philippines-necessity-is-the-mother-of-adoption
Published Date: Fri, 29 Jan 2021 06:26:22 +0000

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Crypto in the Philippines: Necessity is the mother of adoption
Crypto in the Philippines: Necessity is the mother of adoption was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/crypto-in-philippines-necessity-is.html

Thursday 28 January 2021

Altcoins soar after 10% Bitcoin price breakout flips $33K back to support

Altcoins soar after 10% Bitcoin price breakout flips $33K back to support
Altcoins soar after 10% Bitcoin price breakout flips $33K back to support

Bitcoin (BTC) price appears to have flipped the $32,000 level back to support as the wider cryptocurrency market saw renewed optimism on Jan. 28. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that BTC has steadily climbed higher in price from $31,000 to its current value of $33,400, an increase of 9.5%.


Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The most notable gainer of the day was Dogecoin (DOGE) which surged more than 200%.

The popular meme coin became the latest beneficiary of the 3 million member Reddit community behind the incredible GameStop (GME), BlackBerry (BBY) and AMC Theatres (AMC) pump that happened over the last few days. In the early morning hours of Jan. 28, a Twitter account named WSB Chairman tweeted:

A lot of you are talking about Dogecoin. What’s that? A meme crypto?

— WSB Chairman (@WSBChairman) January 28, 2021

Shortly afterwards, members in the Wall Street Bets telegram began discussing the possibility of pushing DOGE to $1.

According to data from TheTIE, the tweet volume for Dogecoin “surpassed Bitcoin over the last 24 hours,” making this the first time on record that “an altcoin has been tweeted about more than Bitcoin over a 24 hour period.”


Dogecoin price vs. tweet volume. Source: TheTIE

In a private conversation with Cointelegraph, Joshua Frank, founder of TheTIE, commented on just how “wild” the activity related to Dogecoin has been over the past 24-hours.

Frank said:

“Dogecoin tweet volume is up 1,665% today, its trading volume is up 1,546%, and its price is up 209%”

Wall Street continues to embrace cryptocurrencies

Coinbase officially unveiled its plan to go public later this year. According to Coinbase Blog, the company will do a direct listing of its Class A common stock, making existing shares available to the public.

North Carolina wealth manager Kingfisher Capital also made headlines after filing documents revealed that the firm had purchased 10,667 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust over the past few months.

Several brokerage firms in the United States, including the popular mobile-based Robinhood, are receiving blowback for halting trading on stocks like GameStop (GME) and AMC Holdings Inc. (AMC), which has been the primary story of the week after a retail investor-inspired short squeeze by members of the Reddit group r/wallstretbets pushed the prices of each stock up by hundreds of percent.

The traditional markets also saw a bounce following a minor sell-off yesterday. The S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow all saw positive inflows and finished the day up 0.98%, 0.68% and 0.99% respectively.


BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Coin360

Bitcoins show of strength at the $32,000 coincided with a strong rally from many altcoins and currently the majority of the top 100 coins are reflecting 3% to 15% gains.

Cosmos (ATOM) rallied by 15.41%, Stellar (XLM) gained 13.91% and Compound (COMP) added 14.21%. Ether (ETH) price also increased by 5.96% and currently trades at $1,355.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $984.6 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 63.2%.

Title: Altcoins soar after 10% Bitcoin price breakout flips $33K back to support
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/altcoins-soar-after-10-bitcoin-price-breakout-flips-33k-back-to-support
Published Date: Thu, 28 Jan 2021 23:03:46 +0000

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Altcoins soar after 10% Bitcoin price breakout flips $33K back to support
Altcoins soar after 10% Bitcoin price breakout flips $33K back to support was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/altcoins-soar-after-10-bitcoin-price.html

ALPHA surges 152% in one week: What’s behind its meteoric rally?

ALPHA surges 152% in one week: What’s behind its meteoric rally?
ALPHA surges 152% in one week: What’s behind its meteoric rally?

ALPHA, the governance token of Alpha Finance Lab, has surged 152% in the past week. It is now the 85th most valuable cryptocurrency in the global market, breaking into the top 100 in a short period.

Behind its meteoric rally are three key factors, namely the rapidly rising total value locked (TVL) of Alpha Homora, the overall positive market sentiment around DeFi, and the imminence of Alpha Homora v2.


ALPHA/USDT 15-min price (Binance). Source: TradingView.com

What is ALPHA, Alpha Homora and AlphaX?

Alpha Homora is essentially a protocol that enables users to yield farm using leverage.

The term yield farming means the process of providing liquidity to DeFi protocols to earn sustainable yield or APY. By using leverage, Alpha Homora allows users to provide liquidity to pools more efficiently.

Alpha Homora v2 adds various improvements to the first release. It adds more pool support on top of Uniswap, such as Curve, Balancer, and SushiSwap. This allows users to benefit from a more diverse selection of pools to yield farm.

The v2 also lets users hold up to 9x leveraged positions, borrow multiple assets, and lend or borrow other assets apart from Ethereum, as Band Protocol’s Sawit Trisirisatayawong explained.

Ultimately, Alpha Homora should be useful for the average DeFi user with limited capital who wants to maximize their yield.

AlphaX, the decentralized futures exchange, also aims to be beginner-friendly by removing the manual futures funding rate, and baking it into the price. The two key products in the Alpha Finance Lab ecosystem are both designed to serve casual users in DeFi.

At a market cap of $296 million, ALPHA is arguably considered a blue-chip DeFi asset. But, the price of ALPHA has significant momentum and is continuously rallying.

The optimism around ALPHA stems from the rapid increase in Alpha Homora’s TVL and the active developer community of the project.

Alpha Homora’s $618 million alone could justify a high valuation for ALPHA, by calculating the potential fees the protocol could charge in the future and predicting its cash flow.

The existence of other key products like AlphaX that make Alpha a more extensive DeFi ecosystem has likely made ALPHA more appealing as a long-term DeFi bet.

The pace of growth is optimistic

Alpha Homora is the fastest DeFi protocol to reach a $600 million TVL in the history of the DeFi space.


Alpha Homora growth. Source: Alpha

The top DeFi protocols and lending platforms, like Aave and Curve, took around six months to reach the same TVL.

But while Alpha  has admittedly launched as the DeFi space was seeing explosive growth, it is still impressive that it was able to outpace the largest DeFi projects in the space.

Over the longer term, there are several potential catalysts for the price of ALPHA.

Most notably, the official document of Alpha Finance Lab shows that the ALPHA token holders might soon be able to receive a portion of protocol fees through either staking or providing liquidity. The document reads:

“Utility token for all Alpha products (e.g. provide liquidity or stake to receive % protocol fees) (not yet implemented).”

More utility for the ALPHA token should act as a strong catalyst in the longer term, and make the token itself more attractive.

Title: ALPHA surges 152% in one week: What’s behind its meteoric rally?
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/alpha-surges-152-in-one-week-what-s-behind-its-meteoric-rally
Published Date: Thu, 28 Jan 2021 13:41:39 +0000

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ALPHA surges 152% in one week: What’s behind its meteoric rally?
ALPHA surges 152% in one week: What’s behind its meteoric rally? was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/alpha-surges-152-in-one-week-whats.html

Bitcoin price dips below $30K but here’s why pro traders are still bullish

Bitcoin price dips below $30K but here’s why pro traders are still bullish
Bitcoin price dips below $30K but here’s why pro traders are still bullish

In the last 24-hours Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 10% today to test the $30,000 support. This drop below what traders have described as a ‘key’ support occurred just two days ahead of this month’s futures and options expiry. 

Despite the record-high $4 billion options expiry being just two days away, both bull and bear sides traded similar sizes today.

Unlike futures contracts, options are divided into two segments. Call (buy) options allow the buyer to acquire BTC at a fixed price on the expiry date. On the other hand, the seller of the instrument will be obliged to make the BTC sale. Generally speaking, they are used on either neutral arbitrage trades or bullish strategies.

The put (sell) options are commonly used as hedge, protection from negative price swings.

To understand how these competing forces are balanced, one should compare the calls and put options size at each expiry price (strike). Options markets are all-or-none, meaning they either have value or become worthless if trading above the call strike price, or the opposite for put option holders.


Aggregate options trade volume in the past 24 hours. Source: Bybt.com

The trading volume over the past 24-hours has favored the more bullish call options by 51%. Nevertheless, this number is polluted by the ultra bullish strikes priced at $37,000 and higher. Considering there’s less than 36 hours before the expiry, these contracts are trading below $50 each.

Excluding these over-optimistic strikes, today’s trading added another $95 million worth of call options open interest below $35,000. On the other hand, the more bearish put options at $27,000 and higher amount to $90 million worth of open interest.

The result of today’s activity has been neutral for Friday’s options expiry. Nevertheless, one should check the overall open interest imbalance separate from today’s movement.


BTC Jan. 29 aggregate options open interest by strike. Source: bybt.com

By excluding the put options below $27,000 and the call options above $35,000, it is easier to estimate the potential impact of Friday’s expiry. Incentives to pump or dump the price by more than 16% become less likely, as the potential gains will seldom surpass the cost.

This data leaves $582 million worth of call options up to $35,000 for the aggregate options expiry on Jan. 29. Meanwhile, the more bearish put options down to $27,000 amount to $422 million. Therefore, there’s a $160 million imbalance favoring the more bullish call options.

Considering the volumes traded over the past 24 hours and the put options open interest, there’s not much gain for bears in pressuring BTC below $29,000, at least from the options market standpoint.

author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Title: Bitcoin price dips below $30K but here’s why pro traders are still bullish
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-dips-below-30k-but-here-s-why-pro-traders-are-still-bullish
Published Date: Thu, 28 Jan 2021 01:00:44 +0000

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Bitcoin price dips below $30K but here’s why pro traders are still bullish
Bitcoin price dips below $30K but here’s why pro traders are still bullish was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/bitcoin-price-dips-below-30k-but-heres.html

Wednesday 27 January 2021

The adventures of the inventive Alex Mashinky 

The adventures of the inventive Alex Mashinky 
The adventures of the inventive Alex Mashinky 


Title: The adventures of the inventive Alex Mashinky 
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/magazine/2021/01/27/the-adventures-of-the-inventive-alex-mashinky
Published Date: Wed, 27 Jan 2021 18:43:17 +0000

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The adventures of the inventive Alex Mashinky 
The adventures of the inventive Alex Mashinky  was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-adventures-of-inventive-alex.html

Tuesday 26 January 2021

Marathon Patent Group Invests $150 Million in Bitcoin

Marathon Patent Group Invests $150 Million in Bitcoin
Marathon Patent Group Invests $150 Million in Bitcoin

One of the leading North American Enterprise Bitcoin mining companies, Marathon, has today announced that it bought 4,812.66 BTC at an aggregate price of $150 million. With this purchase, the Nasdaq-listed Marathon is looking to strengthen its position as the investment option for both institutions and individuals seeking exposure to Bitcoin.

For the effective purchase of this Bitcoin, Marathon announced that it has been working with a successful Bitcoin-focused technology and financial services firm, NYDIG. Capitalizing on the expertise of the NYDIG in trading, execution, and asset management, Marathon bought the afforementioned Bitcoin amount at favorable market conditions, with the transaction having been reported as an efficient one.

De-Facto Bitcoin Exposure Choice For Individuals & Institutions 

According to Merrick Okamoto, Marathon’s chairman & CEO:

“By purchasing $150 million worth of Bitcoin, we have accelerated the process of building Marathon into what we believe to be the de facto investment choice for individuals and institutions who are seeking exposure to this new asset class.”

It is understood that Marathon believes that holding a part of their treasury reserves in Bitcoin will prove to be better in the long run compared to holding US dollars, and Marathon has so far made contracts to purchase 103,060 miners. Furthermore, Okamoto believes that by the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2022, all 103,060 miners will be delivered and fully deployed.

To put things into perpspective, based upon the current difficulty rate of Bitcoin’s network, it is estimated that Marathon would have produced approximately 55-60 bitcoins per day if all 103,060 miners were operational today. However, at this current moment in time, it appears that Marathon is leveraging cash to purchase more Bitcoins, and it it seems that the company’s vision of becoming a go-to intermediary is slowly but surely becoming a reality. 

n Institutional Choice

According to Robby Gutmann, co-founder, and CEO of NYDIG:

“We deeply admire Marathon’s commitment to the Bitcoin ecosystem, and we are very pleased to add them to the list of companies who utilize NYDIG as the institutional choice for Corporate Treasury Solutions.”

It therefore appears that NYDIG holds a unique position, insofar as the company leverages a unique system to assist corporations to overcome the challenges that they face, whilst also executing and structuring their large holdings of Bitcoins. So when it comes to Marathon’s latest Bitcoin purchase, it appears that NYDIG have fired off on all cylinders  to deliver a custom solution, and with a quick turnaround.

Given how this follows of the back of Microstrategy’s monumental Bitcoin event announcement, one can expect to see more institutional interest sprouting up in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Title: Marathon Patent Group Invests $150 Million in Bitcoin
Sourced From: cryptodaily.co.uk/2021/01/marathon-patent-group-bitcoin-investment
Published Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2021 12:56:45 +0000


Marathon Patent Group Invests $150 Million in Bitcoin
Marathon Patent Group Invests $150 Million in Bitcoin was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/marathon-patent-group-invests-150.html

ZIL Moves Above $0.1 But Cannot Sustain Rally

ZIL Moves Above $0.1 But Cannot Sustain Rally
ZIL Moves Above $0.1 But Cannot Sustain Rally


Title: ZIL Moves Above $0.1 But Cannot Sustain Rally
Sourced From: cryptopanic.com/news/11266612/ZIL-Moves-Above-01-But-Cannot-Sustain-Rally
Published Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2021 12:57:00 +0000


ZIL Moves Above $0.1 But Cannot Sustain Rally
ZIL Moves Above $0.1 But Cannot Sustain Rally was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/zil-moves-above-01-but-cannot-sustain.html

Bored with Bitcoin? The BTC bull run is about to return, this indicator says

Bored with Bitcoin? The BTC bull run is about to return, this indicator says
Bored with Bitcoin? The BTC bull run is about to return, this indicator says

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers hoping for a return to the bull run may not have long to wait, as a popular indicator gives cause for optimism.

As compiled by on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, data from the Bitcoin spent output profit ratio (SOPR) suggests that the current BTC price correction is almost complete.

BTC price correction should end “soon”

The SOPR tracks the percentage of coins being moved that are in profit — in other words, whether hodlers are selling at a profit or loss.

When the indicator is above 1 and falling, it reflects sellers divorcing themselves of their holdings at various profit margins. Once 1 is hit, “resetting” the SOPR, sellers have sold all that they can, which reduces downward price pressure and notionally allows Bitcoin to increase once again.

The SOPR has shown its muscle in various phases of past bull cycles, and the resetting phenomenon was particularly successful at charting price bottoms in 2020. 

Now, with a decreasing trend nearing the magical 1 value, market participants are hoping that the past week’s sell-off may be the end, rather than the beginning, of lackluster performance.

“So, if we are in a bull market now, according to the SOPR the correction is not over yet, but it will end soon,” popular Twitter account CryptoHamster wrote on Tuesday, uploading an annotated Glassnode chart.


Bitcoin SOPR chart with “resets” highlighted. Source: CryptoHamster/Twitter

Inflows speak for themselves

If the SOPR repeats its historical pattern, it may please some investors who have witnessed considerable volatility so far this year. 

While commentators argue that Bitcoin could not have continued its vertical gains for an extended period under any circumstances, cold feet have characterized reactions to Bitcoin’s correction from $42,000 to under $30,000.

Amid a sea of explanations for the sudden slump, proponents are highlighting institutional involvement as an antidote to panic from retail sellers and criticism from the mainstream news and financial sector. Grayscale, for example, has resumed its buying after the holiday break ended, regularly adding many more times the amount of BTC than is mined during the same period. 


Grayscale BTC holdings. Source: Bybt.com

“$1.31 billion flowed into Bitcoin and crypto investment products last week (a new record) as investors rushed to buy the dip,” entrepreneur Alistair Milne summarized on Twitter Tuesday. 

He added that 97% of that new capital entered Bitcoin, specifically.

Disclaimer: Quotes in this article taken from previously published sources have been lightly edited.

Title: Bored with Bitcoin? The BTC bull run is about to return, this indicator says
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/bored-with-bitcoin-the-btc-bull-run-is-about-to-return-this-indicator-says
Published Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2021 14:32:56 +0000


Bored with Bitcoin? The BTC bull run is about to return, this indicator says
Bored with Bitcoin? The BTC bull run is about to return, this indicator says was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/bored-with-bitcoin-btc-bull-run-is.html

Reddit investing group triggers crypto-style 860% rally in GameStop stock

Reddit investing group triggers crypto-style 860% rally in GameStop stock
Reddit investing group triggers crypto-style 860% rally in GameStop stock

Since Jan. 22 GameStop has been attracting a lot of attention from the mainstream news as the stock (GME) for the popular video game retailer rallied 860% from $17.40 on Jan. 4 to a high of $159.18 on Jan. 25. 

On Jan. 25 GME pulled back 51.70% from its high to close the day at $76.79 but what lies behind the massive upsurge warrants closer inspection.

While solid fundamentals often lead to price breakouts in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, the recent interest in GameStop appears to have more to do with the ‘Reddit army’ phenomenon which has seen internet groups go head to head with some of the largest firms on Wall Street.


GameStop (GME) 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The most well-known instance of this trend in the cryptocurrency sector occurred when a group of dedicated Chainlink (LINK) investors affectionately referred to by many as ‘LINK Marines’ joined forces to spread positive news about the altcoin and also pledged to keep buying it when larger investors devised a plan to short LINK.

In early 2020 the LINK Marines responded to Zeus Capital’s attempt to short the altcoin. When the word got out that Zeus Capital had referred to Chainlink as ‘crypto’s wirecard’ and opened a short position, LINK marines went to work, refusing to sell and pushing the altcoin’s price to a new all-time high by triggering successive short squeezes.

Fallout from the short call also shifted to Nexo Finance as members of the LINK marines discovered a clue allegedly connecting Zeus Capital with Nexo.

Gemini exchange co-founder, Tyler Winklevoss, previously acknowledged the contribution that the LINK marines add to the cryptocurrency community with the following tweet:

“I really appreciate the passion of the $LINK Marines. Their fervor and dedication reminds me of the early Bitcoin and Ethereum communities. Unlike many other crypto armies, they are dedicated to a project that has real promise and technical merit.”

A similar situation occurred with GameStop on Jan.21 after Citron Research announced plans to open a short position as they believed GME price would fall back to $20. The reaction to this announcement was so swift that Citron Research was unable to finish its Twitter live stream due to an overwhelming amount of responses.

Social investing groups are having an outsized impact on stocks

This isn’t the first time a group of investors on a social platform have joined together to pump the price of an asset as a similar phenomenon occurred with Tesla and Netflix stock in 2020.

Analysts had been calling for a drop in the price of Tesla (TSLA) stock since early 2019 and a number of institutional investors opened large short positions only to see its value increase by more than 1000% since that time and help Elon Musk briefly become the richest person in the world. Short sellers who piled in on the advice of the trusted wall street analysts have been crushed by the non-stop move higher.

These moves higher have been powered in part by the Robinhood effect, a term coined to define irrational stock price movements caused by retail buyers on mobile investing apps like Robinhood. Millennial traders high on easy options trading made it possible to pump TSLA and NFLX, triggering a massive short squeeze again and again.


TSLA/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Netflix (NFLX) has also been plagued with calls of an impending price drop for years as analysis showed that the company was burning through cash, losing subscribers to competitors yet still raises prices. Some of the top investment brokerages rated the stock as a ‘sell’ and chat forums were rife with discussions of why Netflix stock should be shorted.


NFLX/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

During the time that analysts were writing NFLX off, its price increased from $253 to an all-time high of $586 on Jan. 20.

Unconventional practices compete with conventional investing

From Tesla to GameStop, it’s clear that there has been a shift in how investors interact with financial markets and the factors that catalyze price discovery have also changed as retail traders have easier access to market information and analysis.

Threats against short-sellers are nothing new, but what is different in this situation is that it has become “internet vigilantes, and not corporate agents, who targeted the shorts,” as noted by Christopher Smith in a recent thread posted on TradingView.

Smith said:

“The GameStop and Tesla stories prove that retail traders, if they band together, have the power to be market makers and to take on institutions. It also proves that markets aren’t necessarily efficient or rational.”

The cryptocurrency sector appears to be on the precipice of becoming a mainstream investment and as mobile investing platforms gain more market share and the popularity of social investing grows, it’s possible that the same phenomenon seen with GameStop and Tesla will become commonplace with the low market cap, illiquid tokens that populate the crypto market.

Millennials are also becoming increasingly interested in investing and as more of them engage with mobile investment platforms, these social investing phenomena could become more prevalent.

A clear example that the two worlds are beginning to merge can be found on the Twitter feed of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, MicroStrategy CEO Micheal Saylor, and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey. Each frequently references Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin in their tweets and a number of times this has resulted in a temporary price pump of the discussed asset.

As 2021 progresses, it will be interesting to see how mainstream financial markets adapt and change to the growing influence of decentralized groups of united retail investors.

com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Title: Reddit investing group triggers crypto-style 860% rally in GameStop stock
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/reddit-investing-group-triggers-crypto-style-860-rally-in-gamestop-stock
Published Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2021 03:46:26 +0000


Reddit investing group triggers crypto-style 860% rally in GameStop stock
Reddit investing group triggers crypto-style 860% rally in GameStop stock was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/reddit-investing-group-triggers-crypto.html

These 5 charts show why Bitcoin price failed to break $35K

These 5 charts show why Bitcoin price failed to break $35K
These 5 charts show why Bitcoin price failed to break $35K

Bitcoin (BTC) fell towards $30,000 on Jan. 26 after higher levels evaporated and fresh miner outflows appeared to suppress price action.

BTC price rally turns sour

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and Tradingview showed the largest cryptocurrency abruptly U-turn as it neared $35,000 in early week trading. 

At the time of writing, BTC/USD was lingering closer to $31,000, marking 24-hour losses in excess of 5%.

A combination of factors, all of which suggest a short-term profit-taking mission among market participants, entered the scene on Monday to keep bulls from taking prices higher. 


BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Miners likely still selling

Data shows that miner outflows — funds leaving mining pools — continued to spike this week. As Cointelegraph reported, last week’s price dive came as largest pool F2Pool saw several days of major outflows. This time, however, smaller miners were taking the lead.


Small miner outflows chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Outflows may not specifically indicate that miners are selling BTC, but show that mined coins are moving, possibly to venues where they will form part of a trade.

According to on-chain analytics resource CryptoQuant, total outflows were down this week versus last, but still heightened compared with recent months.


Total miner outflows chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Exchange flows positive for Bitcoin

Looking at exchanges, traders appeared to be nervous regarding market strength. Unlike behavior during Bitcoin’s vertical price growth at the turn of the year, net flows to exchanges were positive in recent days. 

Compiled by on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, data tracking major exchanges showed that around $108 million more was deposited than withdrawn on Monday.

Conversely, supplies of largest altcoin Ether (ETH) on trading platforms fell by $47 million, while Tether (USDT) increased by $65 million.

Removal of coins from exchanges implies that holders have no intention to trade or sell them, instead placing them back in hot or cold storage wallets.

Coins are highly active

There are more active Bitcoin addresses than ever, while BTC holdings kept moving in recent days.

Bitcoin Days Destroyed, which measures the amount of each transaction on the Bitcoin network versus how long ago the coins involved last moved, hit three-month lows this week.

Glassnode tracked a steep decline in the metric in January, coinciding with a trading frenzy on the back of Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs of $42,000.


Bitcoin Days Destroyed 7-day moving average chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

At the same time, wallet numbers themselves passed 1.24 million as of Jan. 8, the latest date for which data is available.

Resistance is in…

A glance at the spot market on Tuesday highlighted multiple resistance levels on BTC/USD, with sellers lined up at $1,000 increments beginning at $35,000.


USDT order heatmap on Jan. 26. Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

So far, bulls have failed to tackle any of these, with support likewise in place at each $1,000 level until $27,000.

…And greed is out

Finally, after hovering at record levels in Q4 2020, a classic measure of investor sentiment came back down to October levels in recent days only to then rebound to 71. 

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which uses a basket of factors to determine whether investors themselves will cause Bitcoin to boom or bust, swapped “extreme greed” to comparatively normal “greed.”


Crypto Fear & Greed Index chart. Source: Digital Assets DataTitle: These 5 charts show why Bitcoin price failed to break $35K
Sourced From: cointelegraph.com/news/these-5-charts-show-why-bitcoin-price-failed-to-hit-35k
Published Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2021 10:07:34 +0000


These 5 charts show why Bitcoin price failed to break $35K
These 5 charts show why Bitcoin price failed to break $35K was originally published here https://observednews.blogspot.com/2021/01/these-5-charts-show-why-bitcoin-price.html

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